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Squawk on the Street

News/Business. Melissa Lee, Carl Quintanilla, David Faber. Opening bell market action. New.

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03:00:00

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Romney 33, Us 32, Europe 23, U.s. 15, Ohio 14, Sandy 14, S&p 13, New York 12, Virginia 11, Ralph Nader 10, Obama 9, Carl 8, America 6, China 6, Gm 6, Randi Zuckerberg 5, Paul Ryan 5, Florida 5, Washington 5, Chicago 5,
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  CNBC    Squawk on the Street    News/Business. Melissa Lee, Carl Quintanilla,  
   David Faber. Opening bell market action. New.  

    November 6, 2012
    9:00 - 12:00pm EST  

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wonderful thing. in a certain sense i'm glad i had to go to the hospital because i wouldn't have seen it. >> we're glad you came. >> join us tonight for a special edition of "squawk box." "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ after all of the primaries, the ads, the debates, it all comes down to you voting today. good morning. happy election day. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with melis melissa, jim cramer, david faber. some green arrows on the dow. stocks haven't had a three-day winning streak since october 17 as they really do wonder what the end result is going to be after the polls close. as for europe, some pmi numbers coming out. a lot of the negative but some
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argue not deteriorating as quickly as they have been in recent months and quarters. road map this morning is a long trip from new hampshire to hawaii as americans vote today. markets awaiting the results. bear in mind, 30 million americans have already cast their ballots of early voting. how does that change today's dynamics? >> gm gets 11 billion $11 billi credit lines a sign it may buy back shares from the government. nissan and suzuki see big impact. >> tens of thousands of beginning a strike ahead of a critical vote tomorrow. americans are gearing up for one of the closest presidential elections in recent history. much of the nation already voting. polls in colorado, new mexico, utah, wyoming and nebraska are opening now. one example of how close the election may be.
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voters in new hampshire, the first place that opens at midnight, split for the first time five votes each for obama and five for romney. election coverage begins with a special edition of "squawk box" tonight at 5:00 p.m. eastern time followed by prime time coverage here on cnbc. jim will be a big part of this. >> i can't wait. a big night. i think that -- look, as maine goes so it goes. new hampshire, i don't know. when i look at all of the polls, i here it neck and neck. when i look -- this is why i believe it will be for obama. that's not a political statement by the way. what i'm saying is i look at the states and obama does factor plus or minus he's ahead except for virginia and maybe florida depends on the poll. i urge everyone to go out and vote in new jersey. very difficult. largest polling place in our town closed. no power. people have to recognize that the adversity of a lot of people trying to vote today shows you that democracy is trying to be
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at work. not as easy as you thought. >> i have always said voting is messy. we do it better than just about anybody else. >> north korea has the 99%. everybody seems to turn out. >> regardless of whether the lights or off or not. >> another call today from deutsche bank saying that there's a rally if obama wins and a rally if romney wins going into year end. depends if you look at 1450 or 1500. >> some have said there's a bond market rally for one and stock market rally for other. bond market for obama. easy money so to speak continuing. one of the key questions people come back to is it possible if romney wins and replace him prior to that in some fashion. what we can expect. we'll sit here tomorrow and know who the president is. you talk about uncertainty.
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that would be a blow if we sit here tomorrow and don't know. we're going to be dealing with so many other things that are out there that we'll continue to hear about and we won't know the answers to. europe being one of the keys. >> i read today that there is a finale hopefully to an election that allows you to be able to think, okay, i can't own those coal stocks anymore. okay, i do think mortgage rates will be x. something does happen that's good. >> from an investor standpoint you can do the mental calculus. you can actually do that mental calculation and see where you stand. in terms of the market reaction, it's jpmorgan is pointing out in a note today that options market is pricing in a big move on the s&p 500. when option markets price in moves, they're either up or
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down. they're pricing at 20 to 30-point s&p move tomorrow, wednesday. that is major. don't know if it will happen. up or down 20 points on the s&p 500. we're just showing cnbc romney and obama index made up of individual stocks. it's interesting to see what the stocks are but in general obama with alternative energy whereas romney would be hit with coal stocks. romney with defense stock. the list goes on and on. you can see where the candidates stand. >> i know there's a lot -- i'm dividing the romney stocks into stocks that can really be controlled by a president. and stocks that fall into the sentimental camp of romney given the fact that when you go, use defense stocks. i went through every piece of research about defense stocks. bottom line in each case is sequestration. forget it.
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they want to say romney wants to do this. >> neither candidates have talked about cutting the defense budget in a significant way. we end up with sequestration because the obama camp believed that would get republicans to the table. the idea you have significant cuts in defense. here we are potentially facing it. >> you talk about finality. the election kept us from paying atension to good things that are happening in business. kellogg, ford, procter. >> people said holy cow. that breaks the streak where kellogg hasn't been doing well. howard schultz on friday, he promised on our show right here on our show, he said there's a turn happening. no one believed him. you picked up 10% in a day. >> 5% traffic growth at starbucks domestically.
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how do you get 5% more to go in the door. it's already crowded. >> the man came on our show right here. he delivers the third. it's pixar. it's marvel then he delivers lucas films and the stock goes down. hello. why? because it was eight cents diluted? >> you mentioned pvh. so your point is what? with this out of the way, you're assuming results will continue to be good. >> this was -- i always like to break it down into a somewhat cynical way. was it risk off that day? was it risk on? no. it was good news and bad news. >> you cited positive execution and you cited m & a, which we don't know if it will be good or bad. we can only assume that disney will do well with this acquisition because it has done well in the past. >> bob is working hard to make
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it happen. he did the last few times. it's a fabulous move. what i'm saying is that while so many people are waiting for an election, the ceos aren't. some of them are doing good things. >> are there certain sectors that either an obama or romney presidency will do well no matter what? the turn is already in them and therefore whoever is president is sort of marginal to the story. i think of home builders for instance or financials. is the turn already in in bigger than any candidate? >> i think it's hard to stop housing demographics. housing is growing again. no one pays any attention. they try to figure out which way ohio is going to go. we saw coal stocks continuing to go up as if the day that obama leaves everyone in epa is fired and we bring in a pro-coal epa. that is something that could
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happen. he doesn't have control of the court of appeals in d.c. which is historically anti-coal. you can pack that epa with people who want coal for christmas. >> let's move to the auto industry. it's been a flash point in the presidential election. ford vehicle ma four vehicle makers are in the news today. nissan/ing full-year profit forecast by 20%. the japanese automaker citing weaker sales in china and europe. bmw says third quarter profits rose 16% because of strong sales in china offset weakness in europe and suzuki will stop selling cars in the united states. the company's american unit filing for chapter 11. different news to digest. sales in the u.s., ford, gm, doing well. japanese automaker selling to china not doing so well.
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foreign automaker selling into china doing well at bmw. >> i think the suzuki thing mirrors what's happening at ford. >> i had an eye on one of their models. >> which one? >> the one with the four wheels. >> i have a harley in my garage. >> i'm not kidding. >> which garage is it by the way? do you even know? >> one of them is flooded. are you happy with that? >> is there a side car at leas.? >> i have tattoos all of the way up you just don't see them. suzuki blinking, ford, blinking, gm starting to blink. there's anti-globalization going on that we have to notice. some people say that i can't hack it in these markets. toyota was good. bmw was downbeat in terms of future. it wouldn't be something if
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everyone recognized what alcoa recognized. maybe it's too hard to be global. maybe it's too hard. go, suzuki was broken by the yen. it's hard to do business when you have these currency wars going on. >> how about kimberly getting out of diapers in europe? there's a recognition and this has to do with netflix, david, which is why i bring it full circle. if netflix hadn't decided that norway was the market, don't you think netflix would be higher had they not placed a huge amount of money on that? >> it's possible. >> it's true. it's true. >> if you are going to run a growth business for the long haul, how can you ignore parts of the world particularly ones that are -- europe is not growing very fast or growing at all at this point. still, you got to believe -- >> you can.
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>> speaking of all things europe, it's in the spotlight again. hundreds of thousands of greeks have begun a 48-hour strike in protest of wage and pension cuts which greece's parliament is expected to approve tomorrow in a key vote and in germany industrial orders down adding to worries that europe's largest economy may fall into recession. it looks like germany contracts in the fourth quarter. some others say the pmis were plummeting before and now they are inching down or maybe staying relatively stable. >> fxe got hit. it was strong. you had upward move. and then it just kind of backed off and then reversed. >> wouldn't it be poetic if we got through the election here, got a winner, a little certainty in this country, only to have the coalition fall apart in athens? >> the ten-year is the tell.
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the ten-year middle east still -- >> hanging in there. >> it was at 7% this week last year. it's at 4.94. >> don't you find it hard to imagine we're not going to revisit many of the same problems that we visited many times over the last couple of years when it comes to europe? >> i think if the ford model and alcoa model plays out, it will mean less and less for us. what is england like for jpmorgan right now. it's the tail that wagged the dog. what is it now? jpmorgan had a london -- did anyone here know that london was the most important office for jpmorgan? i think new york is taking that back. >> hearing applause. i think the bell ringer this morning -- >> american red cross greater new york region. >> there they are. >> the branch of the red cross. what a week these folks have had trying to help the northeastern united states come back from hurricane sandy. >> i talked to people in the
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utility industry because i have a lot of people on. there's a lot of feeling that the politicians are going to really come down on the utilities after the smoke clears here. i'm hearing it from high level people in the utilities saying no matter what we do, easy times for stockholders could come to an end. >> there's no rule from god that con ed or whoever has to be the utility in any part of the country. >> something to watch. that group has been strong. it's been viewed as an unregulated group that used to be under the jacket of regulation. it could come back. >> many have dividend yields that are significant in these low yield times so they are attractive for that. con ed says it isn't going to try to assess what costs are going to be. >> if you're a politician, they're an easy pinata. red cross, no. con ed, yes. >> more on your money and your vote. we'll get you the opening bell. ralph nader was a third-party
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candidate in the 2012 presidential election. we'll ask him later in the show with a first on cnbc interview. hundreds of thousands of people had power restored after sandy but another storm is coming wednesday night into thursday. will power problems strike twice? we get the story coming up and looking at futures. mild positive action here. we'll see if it holds when we come back here on "squawk on the street."
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today's presidential election could come down to one swing state in the midwest but will a close vote in ohio will it means court battles like we saw in florida in 2000. we're joined now from columbus, ohio. good morning, scott. >> reporter: good morning, carl. if it is close, even remotely as close as florida 2000, there are a lot of people who say the legal battles could make florida 2000 look like child's play. we'll have more on that later in the program. ohio is a tricky state. economically and so on which we'll also get to in a moment. i want to tell you about turnout. 1.8 million absentee ballots sent out in ohio. that's a record. as you can see, the students have been turning out here at ohio state university so there is a youth vote turnout as well.
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it is a tricky state in the campaign narrative this time around. the question is who gets credit for an economy that's doing better than the rest of the country? is it the auto bailout and stimulus? give credit to the president? or did all of this happen in spite of the president and with thanks to the state's republican governor who was on "meet the press" on sunday. >> we made ohio safe for business expansion. we balanced our budget. running half a billion dollars in a rainy day fund. our regulators are people who use common sense. >> let's look at some of the impressive numbers in ohio. unemployment just 7%. so that's below the national average. the state has the sixth lowest cost of doing business based on our america's cost of business ranking this year. third in the nation for job creation. ted strickland voted out in the
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republican sweep in 2010 says kasich is taking more credit than he deserves. >> i think if you go back and look at the very recent history in ohio, what's happened with our economy, you can see that ohio's economy started to turn around in 2010. that's before the current governor took office. >> so who is right? in a sense they all are. this state's economy doesn't necessarily fit into either campaign's narrative. >> we of course both make things. but also we make things for each other. so there are export and import dynamics. >> in fact one of the things that may be benefiting the state's economy is something that's not that glamorous at all which is appreciation of chinese currency which makes the state
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more competitive and to be confused even more, the latest nbc "wall street journal" poll for ohio shows the president opening up a lead among likely voters 51% to 46%. polls show the race tighter. when asked if it's headed in the right direction in that survey, the wrong track leads 49% to 45%. this is a very polarized state. melissa? >> all issues really underscoring how tough this election is going to be. thanks so much. it's going to be a long way. scott joining us from columbus, ohio. cramer is ready to give you a head start on this final trading day before the presidential election results are in. and up next, randi zuckerberg. are there inroads in the valley? let's look at futures one last night. looks like four points to s&p 500. more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. i was in the ambulance
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>> time now for cramer's mad dash ahead of that market open. the last market open before we know who the president is we certainly hope. let's get to cvs and express. there were big numbers. >> cvs is putting on big numbers because walgreens wouldn't get
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with these guys. express scripts is interesting. this is the single of all of the companies i follow, this was the growth stock that was supposed to have the most consistent pattern and a lot of guys hid in this stock. they hid because 2013 was supposed to be so good. one of those things where everyone said 2013 up nicely. and then in a conference call said you are too aggressive. that was the duck came down. >> what did they cite in particular? >> the economy. they said there's not enough job formation. i mean, this was the kind of stock i never knew had economic sensitivity. now, walgreens had gotten back in bed with these guys and everyone felt that everyone who signed up at cvs would immediately go back to walgreens. it looks like cvs won over a lot of customers. this was a fantastic blowout
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quarter for cvs. >> we talked a lot about that war between walgreens and express and appeared that express was the victor. it may have been these guys at the end of the day. you got one near you and you moved your business there, why would you then go back to walgreens? >> is that why walgreens decided to go international? >> it's an interesting deal. it's two parts. >> this is a big -- this is a big retail name and they're winning. >> we'll keep an eye on cvs and express shares well. depending on who wins the white house, what federal tax rate would you pay? "the new york times" columnist james stewart will compare the tax rates between obama and romney. you'll want to hear. how about math adds up? and former presidential candidate ralph nader. does he think winner of the electoral vote will lose the election just like in 2000? the popular vote -- lose the popular vote. not the electoral college.
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we'll see. we'll talk to him. many say he took the election in a never route than it otherwise would have gone in 2000 as a result of his candidacy. we're back with the opening bell after this. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods' first day of work.
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>> that's the opening bell on this election day over here at the nyse. the american red cross and relief operation for victims of hurricane sandy. some of these numbers are unbelievable. 5,300 red cross workers. 80,000 blankets. over 9,000 people stayed at 113 shelters. they have been working nonstop since the storm hit. the league of women voters at new york state and dosomething.org. an organization of young people for social change. as we take stock of what will happen in the markets to the degree we get directional trade, want to talk about this amazon, staples partnership. has it changed the way we look at bricks and mortar and online
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retailers. >> amazon constantly overrated as being a force to destroy other than best buy. i'm not so sure. amazon is not a big of factor as people think in terms of destroying a business. that's at least from the guys who get the rents. >> amazon might become a bigger player when it comes to cloud services. amazon was added to the conviction buy list citing specifically amazon web services saying this will be a huge growth trajectory business and this is sort of the side of the business that not many people pay attention to because amazon is thought of an online retailer. a huge cloud business. it's getting bigger. we talk to the head of cloud businesses here on "squawk on the street" just a couple months ago. that's the primary reason behind that. amazon stock higher in today's session. >> i rarely talk about the street which i founded.
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switched to amazon, the cloud. that's why it didn't go down during the storm. a lot of other sites did. amazon cloud amazing. >> look at apple. continuing to gain ground. trading at 588.10. up 0.6% adding to yesterday's gains. have we seen the turn perhaps for apple? >> a lot of rumors they're going to include google maps in the operating system again. that would make some of us that held back from the 5 be more inclined to buy the 5. using it this weekend in new orleans, man. you get my cold dead hands you'll have to pry away from that apple 4s. >> meanwhile, we talked about starbucks and some of the growth they've seen in recent quarters. cmg, b of a takes it to a buy. has psychology around that name
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reversed once again? >> it did get a multiple so low it was lower than panera. >> that came through pain for shareholders as a result of those terrible numbers. >> they were terrible. >> zillow down 17%. it's interesting because we scrubbed through a lot of the press release and the copy written around the stories of this earning report and we wouldn't figure out why they lowered full year or lowered fourth quarter. that's a question we'll pose to the ceo tomorrow on "squawk on the street." for now it's just leaving investors scratching their heads. >> credibility completely on the line. let's not forget that trulia is a competitor. we have this great housing boom going on. shouldn't this have been the blowout quarter? >> maybe your play on housing when it comes to listings, you
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won't have to worry about mobile and ads which yesterday hit a high after its recent ipo. >> i agree with you. it would seem chosen by many investors the purest way to play housing. >> you know, i just bought some places in brooklyn. you can make fun of me. >> where is the harley? you really don't know. >> i'm put it on instagram so you believe me. properties are listed in zillow. the funniest one is 1,600 pennsylvania avenue. they have a price on the white house. $245 million now.
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it's funny. nothing funny about zillow the stock though. nothing. previous letter z. who remembers? >> previous letter z. >> five and dime is the hit. >> walworth's. >> put that in terrible corporate names. >> it had the letter z. >> there are so many. >> started with the sell. they just dumped on that. they like velveeta. they like classic kraft. velveeta was tested under nuclear war and tasted just as good after. apparently so. it does not neat refrigeration. i threw out everything in my refrigerator except velveeta. >> velveeta and water, the two
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staples. >> good morning, guys. happy tuesday. happy election day. hope you all went out and voted today. i want to take up something melissa mentioned at the top of the hour. that's all anybody is talking about down here on the floor and that's the possibility of some volatility in the next few days. it does appear there are bets being made on either side of the game here that there will be volatility on the downside or on the upside. so right now the weekly s&p options that expire this friday seem to price at 1.4% move each day until they expire. this is by examining implied volatility. don't want to get too nerdy about this. an expectation in the markets we could have moves up or down 1.4% at least through the end of the week. that's significant amount of daily volatility here. so the theory is very simplistically. there are bets on either side.
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there is significant put option activity at the 1350 to 1400 range. we're at 1417 at the s&p today. that's a bearish call. there's also significant call activity in the 1450 to 1475 range. this would support the idea that some people are trying to play either side of the game. from what i can gather talking to options guys, the main concern is not obama wins, romney wins. the main concern is nobody wins. that seems to be the main game here that there's concerns that we may have no winner by wednesday, thursday or friday and the markets will drop dramatically on that. remember what happened in 2000 when we didn't get a winner until mid december, the s&p 500 dropped 8%, 9% in that six-week period on all of the uncertainty and of course we eventually had to have the supreme court call that. the important thing is i think it's the fear of not having a winner that's really motivating much of that put option activity that we're seeing here today. elsewhere, i know nobody wants
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to talk about europe. right now the numbers are continuing not to be good. remember, after this is over there will be a call on the global market and whether we're at a bottom or not and earnings are at a trough. the call that europe will be at a bottom in the fourth quarter is is nnot working out. the pmi numbers are not indicative of a bottom. greece back in the spotlight. parliament will voete on this austerity bill. that's going to be a major problem. looks like they will have to address the fact that the debt is unsustainable. the main point that everybody is making for a long time about this greek deal. back to you. >> thank you so much. let's check out energy and metals. sharon epperson. >> take your kids to the polls. a great way to start the morning and traders here of course all talking about the election.
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trading here is really waiting to see what happens and so many are on the sidelines. they are looking at what's happening to the price of crude oil and the fact that we're rallying here has a great deal to do with weakness that they have seen in the dollar. we're also looking at a rally in reformulated gasoline futures. that contract rallied sharply since yesterday afternoon. we know that the refinery in new jersey is now going to be shut down for another two to three weeks so that is certainly helping to lift the price of gasoline futures. add to that the nor'easter on its way for tomorrow with supply and distribution issues a big concern. that's certainly supportive of gasoline futures. in terms of the precious metals market, we're getting a lift here closer to 200-day moving average for the gold futures. we're watching and waiting to see what happens. traders saying they're trying to even out positions here until we have the outcome of this presidential election. back to you guys. >> all right. thanks very much, sharon epperson. a lot of media and media distribution names out this morning with earnings.
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let's start off with discovery communications. the stock is down. it's a my multiple stock therefore many investors assuming a continued very high rate of growth overall for revenues and particularly for the international businesses of this company since it is so dependent on them and they're an incredible growth engine. it's there where there was a pause. some would say that pause was a result of the olympics. things accelerated in the second half. that's something the company talked about in a conference call this morning. the pause was there when you look at discovery's advertising revenue up 7% versus a year ago but down 11% from the previous quarter. that is overall on the u.s. and then international you see as well. that's where the disappointment lies with discovery in terms of at least where some analysts were in their estimates. the company is pointing to stronger fourth quarter ad growth for international and in the u.s. i'm told as much as 15 plus
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percent for international ad sales in q-4 and 7% plus in the u.s. so we'll see how the stock reacts from there. you see it is down again. a very high multiple stock. >> it's been loved. >> it has been loved. >> you keep running that stuff over and over again. it has great international business. >> international base in particular for them because it crosses borders so easily for discovery as opposed to many others. >> is that your imitation? >> they have other hits too. >> frozen planet. i loved. that was great. kids love that. >> let's move on to some of the distributors that are out there as well. directv. that stock also down this morning. again, there it was more the u.s. subscriptions or subadditions that were a disappointment in terms of revenue overall in the u.s. accrued 6.4% year over year. that was more or less in line.
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additions there you see it. not what people anticipated. you can see a year ago they were adding over 300,000 subscribers. this has a huge business in latin america. they were more or less in line but no better. that's been the case more often than not for direct having more subscriptions than expected added into that latin america martin. big in brazil and the like. that stock also taking a hit. >> argentina doing a lot of tariff behind the scene anti-american stuff i'm told. >> interesting. we'll end up with a couple more. dish out this morning with numbers. cable vision and charter. we can take at least a look at all of the stocks in question there. you can see dish network is doing fine. in this case while they did lose 19,000 subscribers, that was better than had been anticipated. revenue fell 2.2%. you see that loss. judging from the reaction and
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some of the analyst notes i've seen this morning and a couple conversations i had, it was actually better. term was down a bit three basis points annually. it did rise a bit but again a decent quarter there. cable vision, same story. not bad. they are dealing with the effects of the hurricane on long island right now. you see that stock. finally there's charter. we watch that now. $7 billion market cap at charter. it's ran by tom who is credited with guiding cable vision strategy for many years very effectively. >> smart guy. >> they are talking about a lot of investment at charter and that stock is taking a bit of a hit this morning. the presidential election expected to be neck and neck is now in the hands of you, the american voters. we'll go live to a polling location where vice presidential candidate paul ryan is about to cast his vote next.
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>> and ralph nader in a first on cnbc interview. we look at this morning's early movers on wall street.
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>> take you live to the hedberg public library where paul ryan is casting his vote before he heads to cleveland, ohio, to do campaigning and richmond, virginia. a busy day for paul ryan. >> the story by scott cohn was interesting. this is all oil and gas and the governor has encouraged drilling and the billions of dollars that have gone into oil and gas is why the employment rate is so low. i can tell you to try to get a hotel room in ohio is no easy task because of the oil people.
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>> as we continue to look at janesville. ron mott is there this morning. >> reporter: good morning. we're not too terribly far from chicago and that vote about chicago vote early and vote often applies today to paul ryan. he's voting twice. he's voting early. just before 9:00 here local time. he's on the ballot twice obviously as a vice presidential candidate and also running for an eighth term as congress person representing this district here in southern wisconsin. now, a lot of folks are credited paul ryan with turning this state purple in this election cycle. you wouldn't know this were a battleground if you look the at the six past elections. the last republican to do so was president reagan in 1984. he just about ran everything in 1984. paul ryan on the ballot has made things closer here in this state as perhaps why we saw president obama here twice since friday. governor romney also campaigning here on saturday. we're expecting a tight race here in wisconsin. now, the president has got what
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a lot of folks are referring to a midwestern firewall which includes states like iowa, minnesota, wisconsin, ohio, pennsylvania. and he is leading in the polls in all of those. here in wisconsin the latest nbc "wall street journal" poll has the president up by three points. it's really a statistical dead heat. 49% to 46%. president obama won this state as a candidate in 2008 by 14 points. it was a landslide here. obviously no one expecting that kind of victory for either side today. it's going to be closer in the badger state and a good reason for that is democrats and republicans have been doing battle for almost 24 months here in this state that led to a recall election in june. the republicans won that fight. both sides feel good about their chances here today. >> we'll see if governor romney can flip it. thank you so much. a lot of discussion about madison. big manufacturing base in wisconsin.
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may go more red. we'll see. >> look, in the end this is where i keep coming back to and why i calculate that romney is going to lose and obama wins. again, everything that he keeps saying, statistical dead heat. each time obama is on top. can every statistical dead heat go for romney. every time we say that obama is ahead, it's wrong? that's what has to happen for romney to win. every statistical dead heat has to go his way. >> we'll get cramer's turn to vote. six stocks in 60 seconds. which ones will he give the thumbs up or thumbs down to? we'll find out next. later on, the ceo of foursquare will tell us how they are capitalizing on the election. "squawk on the street" is coming right back. ♪
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[ female announcer ] today is not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the brick, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, the open-air office and the home office as well. ♪ today is not just about who rides in air force one, it's about who rides in the 4 door sedan, the 2 door hatchback and the v8 muscle car. ♪ because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, or where you live, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life.
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welcome to the world leader in derivatives. welcome to superderivatives. >> our election day coverage
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continues. >> good morning, carl. do you know what your federal tax rate will be at obama versus romney? james stewart will be here from "the new york times." he's been doing crunching of those numbers and playing gold in the aftermath of the election and what one small business founder would like to see coming through. the co-founder eer will be on show. >> let's do seven in 60. we'll start with another call on adt like we had yesterday. >> i love it when i have back to back calls. citi has something going on. a buy. this came public in a sliver deal. stay away. >> odd dynamics on work day. >> goldman, jpmorgan, morgan stanley, they start with a neutral. >> citi says qualcomm has upside. >> they report tomorrow. you have to get long this one. >> best in show eog.
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>> i've had him on "mad money." this was an amazing quarter. >> big miss out of fossil. >> wow. i guess they couldn't buy enough of that thing. fossil is a fuel not a piece of jewelry. >> there's a sell to buy on ubs. >> you go the full circle. this has to do with them getting -- getting out of all of the money losers. stay in the money winners. it might be a buy. >> all right. >> i'm with you tonight. >> we're going to have a good time. a lot to talk about. assuming that we know what the deal is in the morning, do you make a trade either way? do you think? >> i think that tesla, wow, gm. the government dumps its gm stake, look out. be long forward and short gm. it could work any way. >> we'll move into a part of the earnings season where retailers are heavy. we'll see the impact of sandy.
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>> i think sandy is going to confuse everything. they lost a warehouse for a while. i think the stock has been completely bloody. good for a trade. >> goldman's take is data will be so noisy over the next few weeks that you might start to rely on softer numbers like consumer confidence or things that aren't as rigid as retail sales. >> i think that one of the things that matters is people forget that my father has been in retail for years. there's an 80-day window of which 30 really matter. if you don't get those, you have to sell these stocks. you need thanksgiving to christmas. >> all right. we'll see you tonight. >> thank you. >> of course coverage begins from 5:00 to 7:00 -- >> i have the air mattress ready. >> when it comes to betting on the election, how should you play gold depending on who wins the presidents whycy? we'll talk to randi zuckerberg,
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the sister of mark zuckerberg. her tv show premiered on bravo last night. we'll talk to her about that too when we come back. nobody said an all-in-one had to be bulky. or that you had to print from your desk. at least, nobody said it to us. introducing the business smart inkjet all-in-one series from brother. easy to use, it's the ultimate combination of speed, small size, and low-cost printing. bob...
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>> take you live to the state that opened polls first. new hampshire. in this case manchester, new hampshire, where the lines are deep. we're getting evidence from around the country that you're going to wait if you are going to vote today. that doesn't mean turnout will be record but there's a good chance that it may be. welcome back to the second hour of "squawk on the street." let's get you the road map for the next hour. your money, your vote. jim stewart of "the new york times" will outline how your finances will fare under the candidates' tax plans. >> a nor'easter is expecteded to hit the northeast tomorrow and it has some of the same regions affected by sandy in its sights. we'll bring you the forecast and utility company con edison will tell us if customers could lose power again. >> we'll look at battleground states for the latest on election 2012. as america heads to the poll, look at the latest list of state
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polls recently opened. the list grows and we'll bring you the latest on that. >> we have reporters clearly spread out across the nation. let's go now to the headquarters for each of the candidates. phil lebeau is in chicago at president obama's campaign headquarters and hampton pearson is at governor romney's headquarters. >> reporter: the stage is set literally set behind me for president obama to come here either late tonight or more likely early tomorrow morning to give either a victory speech or a concession speech. as you mention, he's here in chicago. late last night president obama and the first lady flew into chicago after holding a rally. the final campaign rally in des moines, iowa. when they arrived, they then went to a hotel in downtown chicago. that's where they're going to spend today. the president doing a few radio and tv interviews via satellite.
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meanwhile, vice president biden voted today in delaware. when he cast his vote, he was asked a few times what do you think is going to happen today? here's what he had to say. >> hope you guys voted at home. >> he kind of chuckled and said i'm not so sure about that which a few people are already out on twitter sphere saying is he intimating he may run for president in 2016. this event tonight here at mccormick place far different than what the president did here in chicago in 2008. remember, there was almost a quarter million people packed into grant park for his victory speech. tonight it's going to be much more intimate. invitation only. 10,000 people here at mccormick place. we'll be here all day long. let's see what the mood and
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atmosphere is like in boston for governor romney's campaign headquarters. for that we go to hampton pearson. >> reporter: how are you doing, phil. mitt and ann romney voted a few moments ago here in boston. a bit of an irony. no expert or citizen expects romney to carry massachusetts, his home state. experts say he'll be lucky if he matches 36% that john mccain got four years ago when he ran against barack obama. it's not just the fact that massachusetts is a state that tilts democratic. frankly voters here have similar complaints to what has been heard nationally about the former governor. >> i don't think there's a mystery about mitt romney. i think the united states is learning what we learned here. we're never exactly sure if he means what he says and how long he's going to stick with it.
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>> reporter: the real action in massachusetts is the dead heat contest for the senate between scott brown, the republican, and elizabeth warren, the democrat. voter turnout could top 70%. some 3 million plus votes being cast in one of the most closely watched senate races in the country that could very well determine the balance of power in the senate in the next congress. >> the difference is that scott brown is popular. he is popular. and has been for his entire term. but so is elizabeth warren. and so the question is for independents you get two popular people, who are you going to pull the lever for? >> reporter: now, governor mitt romney literally has miles to go before we see him on the stage behind me. he's off for election day campaign style events in both ohio and pennsylvania. nothing conventional about this particular campaign. mitt romney out there on election day. simon? >> testament to how close is
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still is. hampton pearson there at the romney headquarters and of course tonight cnbc special report. your money, your vote begins at 5:00 eastern. up for grabs, 33 senate seats, 445 house seats and the presidency of the united states. it kicks off with a special edition of "squawk box" at 5:00 p.m. eastern tonight right here on cnbc. >> let's get more on the markets and impact on the election. art cashin, good to see you. in terms of predictions, the options market pricing in terms of implied volatility, a big swing up and down of 20 s&p points. would you agree with that? >> they base that on the idea of surprise. historically election day has a mild upward bias half percentage point about where we are today. the day after election surprisingly when we get to know who the president is, you usually get a small move. neutral to even sometimes
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marginally negative. i think people are believing there's an element of surprise of what's going on. however it turns out, you'll get a big reaction. some people will be baffled. pollsters and everyone calling it middle of the road here. >> the markets will be surprised and move greater than historical norms because the race is tight going into the end. >> that would appear to be the case. the amount of dialogue you hear around about this that -- i mean, the romney people are reasonably secure they have a real chance here. everybody else is saying that's not so. the market is coming in as confused as everyone else. >> could i simplify. is it simply about the fiscal cliff and what the fed does as far as the market is concerned because we're so short-term in our trading and does the fiscal cliff depend ultimately more on how congress comes through this
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election than perhaps who was in the white house? >> congress will be the key factor. i will tell you this, simon. what may surprise the market and i hope this is not the case. i hope that whoever wins, it's not close. if this turns out to be a close election and it looks like we're going to be in litigation to try to find out what's going on, you'll have two things working. that fiscal cliff is going to come rushing up on you before anybody gets anything done and that can cause a big market move. >> deutsche bank suggested the nightmare scenario is obama wins and republicans are angry and there will be deadlock. >> there is a fear you'll see the election not end the election. it will continue for years after. polarization in this country is somewhat frightening. that's why i hope whoever wins, it's not close. >> you do say in your note, pray that it's not close. you like to stir a little bit of worry because people need to be
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prepared for all sorts of scenarios. do you actually believe this has a good chance of happening or is it just a hedge? >> i think it has on outside chance of happening. you don't survive in this business for 50 years without looking for the exit sign the minute you walk in the room. you need to know the way out to make sure it's there. it's not for the purpose of controversy. i like to bring up things i worry about and see where they go. >> worst case scenario, we don't have a clear winner come tomorrow morning, what's the market reaction at that point? is it hold steady and wait and see? >> i think it will be a p protracted battles in the court or whatever. i would think the markets would sell off. maybe sharply because that fiscal cliff will rapidly approach. >> you use 2000 as a model when we lost close to 10% and wouldn't it be reasonable to see that happen again in your views?
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>> it depends on how complicated it is. you're not looking at one florida. you may look at seven. >> going back to the original question that i asked you about volatility of the markets and pricing of the 20-point to 30-point move on s&p 500 seems when we get a winner as you say, it will be a surprise in the markets because it's been so close to the very end. if we don't get a winner, it will also create volatility. either way we're in for a big move on the s&p 500 tomorrow. >> i think it will be bigger if you don't get a winner. you'll get a sigh of relief rally if you do get some kind of winner initially. >> art, thanks. good to see you. art cashin. tax reform obviously a key point of contention in the election. what federal tax rate would you pay if mitt romney were to win? what if the president won re-election? we'll talk to jim stewart of "the new york times" talking about some numbers and what it means for your finances next. plus, the east coast is bracing for another nor'easter storm tomorrow. just one week after hurricane sandy. so will it impede power restoration to those still in need within the tri-state area?
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we'll talk to con ed in just a few.
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find what's next for your business at chase.com/mainstreet the holidays can be an especially difficult time. everything's different now. sometimes i feel all alone. christmas used to be my favorite. i just don't expect anything. what if santa can't find me? to help, sleep train is holding a secret santa toy drive. bring your gift to any sleep train, and help keep the spirit of the holidays alive. not everyone can be a foster parent, but anyone can help a foster child. tax polls wriicy is one of more contentious issues between romney and obama. which one is better for you and your money? jim stewart is a columnist for "the new york times." you wrote an article in which you number crunched what candidate would do what for his rate of taxation and for the top
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400 wealthiest people in the united states. jim, before we dive into the substance of this, i think the most remarkable thing is 18 months into a campaign, a billion dollars spent on each side and still in the final days of that campaign, you feel the need to make the calculation. in other words, people still have no idea. >> i had no idea. i have to say the candidates have not helped very much on that. they have a new curveball on the tax reform front. i sat down to try to do the numbers. it wasn't easy. i did a fair estimate of what they are calling for and tried to come up with an objective answer. >> on the question of why there's an absence of information because each candidate wants the majority of people to believe they won't be paying more. >> they said everybody in the middle class doesn't have to worry. they are very vague about anyone above that or where is middle class. they want to think it will be better. someone is going to pay more. it won't be you. >> let's cut to the chase. you had to make a lot of
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assumptions on either side to get to some sort of figure. what was the outcome? >> what really surprised me is that under the romney plan i got a tax increase. and a pretty big one from 22% of federal rate to over 25%. maybe not so surprising i also got a tax increase on the obama plan and really a big increase from about 22% to over 30%. when i looked at the really rich people, it smooths out just a little bit. basically romney's super rich stayed the same at the low rate. i will say that obama cures the buffett problem. super witch would pay more than me which they do not do at the present. >> what was your takeaway from the process? >> you have to look at the numbers closely. the thing about the romney plan is that it sounds like a tax cut. it's not. it's a tax rate cut for some
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people and if you start wiping out the deductions, it's revenue neutral as he said. if you have a lot of deductions, if you live in a high tax state and if you give to charity and you have a home mortgage, you'll get clobbered under that romney plan when you lose those deductions. that's surprising. the obama plan is a tax increase. i wouldn't call it tax reform. it has benefits and problems that existing program has but it pushes up the top rates and it does really hit the top end. >> what if you just zero in on capital gains, investments, is there more clarity on either side? if you narrow it down to that? >> this to me is the obvious solution of most of these problems. romney has taken it off the table saying we can't raise capital gains and obama said we have to raise them. i think there's room for compromise there. that's the big pot. capital gains preferential rate along with taxed health care benefits, the biggest tax preference in the code and
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biggest reason that richest people pay lower than warren buffett secretaries in the world and it wouldn't curtail economic growth. that's a very controversial issue. >> as you come down the income scale to the bulk of people, the middle class, journalists suggesting today that neither candidate has been honest with them. they are going to have to pay more. they will have to break election promises if they're to deal with the deficit. would you agree? >> they don't have to do that. if they're not going to tax anything on the middle class and what do you mean by middle class, let me point out that people that make 100,000 to 500,000, they fall i guess into the wealthy class but they pay a huge percentage of the total taxes compared to the actual percentage of the population. you can really zero in on those people if you want to and whack them like i get whacked under these plans but when you talk about job creation, growth and who is paying disproportionate share of taxes, you want to be
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careful about hitting that group too much harder. i don't think you should just vote your pocketbook but these are where the numbers are pointing. >> we saw romney's tax rate and figured out your own, you are paying a lot in taxes. >> i pay a huge amount. one reason i pay 22% federal which is high but could be higher is i pay so much state, local, self-employment taxes. my total tax bill is enormous. i'm proud of that. i benefit from this country. i love this country. i don't mind paying taxes. i have to say that i didn't realize what my rate was until i figured it out and major rich people like warren buffett are paying a lower rate than me and romney pay as lower rate. i don't blame them for taking advantage of the tax code. i think that's fundamentally unfair. >> it's farther afield than taxes, we keep hearing this argument that capital spending, the market at large we'll see an almost immediate boost from tomorrow morning if the governor
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is declared the winner. do you think that's close to being true? >> i think that's probably likely. it may get a boost if obama is the winner because the market likes certainty. a lot of people believe there's a positive impact of lower marginal rates and lower capital gains rates. i think the market may get a short-term boost on that. i don't know that data supports that. i think that many studies have not found a correlation between marginal rates and growth. i will say this. i think the economy is on a strong track and i think whoever wins tomorrow is going to benefit over the next four years from trends that are already in place. they may be slow. may be seen not like great growth. outlook over the next four years is positive if we can solve some of the thorny problems that have divided the country. >> namely the fiscal cliff. jim, good to see you. thank you for your time. james stewart joining us from "the new york times." thank you. as the northeast begins to recover from superstorm sandy, the hardest hit regions are bracing for a nor'easter storm tomorrow.
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could power that's finally been restored be knocked out again? new york power company con ed joins us next.
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shares of hasbro is up today. i made a couple calls today on acquisition opportunities. having spoken to those advisers, they tell me there's nothing going on here that they're aware of at all in any way, shape or form involving hasbro. no one knows. it's a blog post. again, those who have advised hasbro in the past tell me they have absolutely no idea what they're talking about. >> it's not completely out of the blue in that disney did the deal with lucas films. >> lucas films, the rights to produce "star wars" figures and like are held by hasbro. there is perhaps speculation there would be interest. at this point at least judging from the responses i've got from
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those that worked with the company in the past, they tell me if it's happening, they're not aware of it at this point. >> okay. thanks for that, david. you can see the stock moving off session highs at this point. in case you weren't aware, there's a coastal storm barreling up the atlantic while the so-called nor'easter won't be as intense as hurricane sandy, it is forecast to deliver heavy rain, wind and flooding. meteorologist todd gross is tracking the storm at headquarters. >> we started to talk about this last week during sandy. at that time it was a computer projection. we didn't actually have a storm on the maps yet. that has changed. it has formed. you can see it right now in the southeastern united states. that l is a low pressure system or storm center that is about to blow up and be one of the stronger coastal storms that we've seen in the northeast in a couple of years if you don't count sandy. let's look at the impact and timetable on this. fortunately it comes after election day by a day. last week we talked about it
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potentially happening on election day. during the day tomorrow, rain and gusty winds will spread up the coastline quickly culminating around 7:00 in the evening from new york city eastward to cape cod. now, what's really important to note is this shifts just a little bit west. i'm talking only 25 miles. we could deal with some serious beach erosion, coastal flooding and of course strong winds gusting as high as 60 miles an hour in the exact same spots that got battered already by sandy and then if you take a look now at wednesday night, you'll see another factor. we could briefly even see a mix or change to snow in the suburbs of the new york area and beyond into the mountains as the storm is at its full power. we have lots to watch with this storm. we'll be doing so every step of the way as it unfolds. >> all right. thank you so much. todd gross back at headquarters. con edison restoring power to more than 800,000 customers hit
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by sandy. as they work to restore power for the remaining 100,000 they are keeping a close watch on that storm obviously. mike joins us on the phone. a spokesperson for con ed. >> good to be here. how are you? >> great. you guys restore service to 87% of your customers and this thing comes along. is this a cruel joke? >> i don't know what to make of it. we'll take it as it comes. if there's anything good to say here, at least we have thousands of extra utility workers to help us respond to this storm when it hits. they are here and we have more coming. hopefully we can respond to it quickly. we'll see how it goes. there are some forecasts that say it may move a little bit east but we'll see. >> the fact that sandy has already come through, you have to imagine, i mean, i'm not a horticulturist but a lot of leaves have been stripped. a tree is less likely to come down now? >> i think at this point it's
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the wind. they have been stripped but you probably still got a lot of trees out there that are leaning on polls or leaning on wires that haven't come down yet. they're close to coming down. this storm could be that one last push. so we certainly expect more outages. it could be even people who just had power restored only to lose it again. as soon as this storm does pass, whatever the damage it causes, we'll be ready to roll. we have something close to 3,000 extra utility workers from around the country and more coming in today. we've got them in ten cities and various locations throughout the city and westchester county and whatever it does, it will do overnight and in the morning they'll go out and start to attack it. >> mike, what's the worst case scenario and do you anticipate taking anybody offline as a precautionary measure? >> the things we did pwas
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underground. at this point at least we are not seeing that happening. we do see a lot of wind and some rain and maybe some snow and that's going to cause probably more outages but we will respond quickly. we'll try to get through what we can today and for as long as we can work tomorrow. >> do you see the need to get the power lines underground and get substations away from areas where they will flood? >> it certainly is a conversation that's been a discussion that will be happening when all of this goes and it's a topic that comes up from time to time. people have to know you have to balance risks and costs. we know it's extremely expensive to put things underground. with sandy, for a large chunk of the city, it didn't matter that
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it was under ground. there's no clear answer to protecting utility systems from mother nature when it is this fierce and this strong. >> hang on a minute. in other developed countries they do have them under ground. the united states is relatively unique compared to western europe in this regard. >> yeah. i mean we have a huge underground system in new york city. when you go out into the suburbs where you've got more tree lined streets and things, it's still on polls and it's something that is very, very expensive and very costly and it's a hard thing to do. it's a conversation i'm sure that will be reignited again. people just have to understand that the cost of doing that are in the billions of dollars. >> always appreciate you coming to the phone. we'll talk to you soon. >> thank you very much. good to be here. >> mike over at con ed. >> up next, the election and your money. dan greenhouse will join us as we head for the campaign finish line. plus, speaking of the final countdown, the former
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presidential candidate himself ralph nader will join us to talk about what role third-party candidates could have in the future. [ male announcer ] tradins like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account. a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying
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one hour into trading.
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7:31 on the west coast. 10:31 on wall street. industry owners plummeting for europe's largest economy. germany's private sector shrank for a sixth straight month and industrial orders fell at the sharpest rate in a year. suzuki says it will stop selling cars in the u.s. after 27 years. operations in the country entered bankruptcy protection yesterday. on the earnings front, cvs posting higher quarterly earnings today citing higher drugstore chain sales and increase in forpharmacy sales. our chief washington correspondent john harwood is at cnbc headquarters and is ready for what i believe will be a long night. >> it will be a long night. we don't know how deep into the early morning hours it will go before we know the winner. what is happening this morning is there's some voting going on. not just with ordinary people but also our candidates.
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mitt romney voted in massachusetts at his polling station. and then he's going to go out and hit the trail. joe biden voted in delaware. really on this last day the machinery turnout machinery for both sides is trying to crank it and get their vote out. the candidates try to influence that a little bit with some media interviews. the president is doing satellite interviews. mitt romney will do some as well. he'll also do stops at the end both in the state of ohio and in the state of pennsylvania where he's made a late play. he explained in an interview last night on "monday night football" that the grind of his schedule in closing days has made him more energized. >> so what i found that surprised me is more events i did, the more energy i seemed to get. more passion from the people. their desire for change if you will gives me more energy and more commitment to the process. i came away at the end of the day instead of being exhausted, i had a hard time falling
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asleep. >> president obama has taken a similar approach to going on "monday night football" and giving his final message. it reflected the discipline of his campaign operation. he said you can't get too far up or too far down on daily developments. you have to stay focused on your task. here's the president. >> it has to do with staying focused and it has to do with not getting distracted by your own hype or the critics. >> that is why the obama campaign, which is very much driven by data, has a lot of confidence on election day because they think they focused properly on who is going to turn out. romney campaign has a different idea of what the composition of turnout will be. we'll find out in a few hours which side is right. >> all right. thanks so much. we'll see you later on. john harwood joining us from headquarters. how will the election affect your portfolio?
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dan greenhouse, good to see you. we were talking to art cashin on the floor. he laid out the scenario where tomorrow we could see a big move in the markets either up or down simply because the race has so tight. to some degree the markets will be surprised either way tomorrow and then there's a whole other scenario where we don't know a winner tomorrow in which case the markets will move big-time up or down. either way we're looking at a lot of volatility tomorrow. would you agree with that? >> two things i'll say. the first of which is with respect to volatility, i certainly think volatility through the end of the year is the more likely outcome than not. we're at levels that certainly suggest volatility should push higher from here especially given the legislative calendar. i disagree that markets will be surprised by tomorrow. i think at least bgig clients with conversations i've been having people for some time now have come to the conclusion if you bet a dollar, the president is more likely to be re-elected or not. that's not to say what they're
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hoping for or not hoping for. if the president is re-elected, my impression from our clients and from my other conversations are that that is the expected outcome. >> is there a so-called obama and romney port pofoliportfolio? certain stocks that investors should be in or out of given the various outcomes? >> again, two things. the first is there's a simple, obvious answer. the first of which is defense companies for instance which have done quite well this year, something that i didn't expect are more likely to do better under president romney than re-elected president obama and there are other names, health care, coal stock, up 30% because of a passing mention in the debate. there's a portfolio to be had. more generally it's important to remember that how candidates campaign and how they actually govern are also two different things.
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president romney wouldn't be a dictator anymore than president obama is. they'll have to deal with a divided congress. they are fully achievable goals are likely to be limited at least with respect to what they would like to do. >> at the same time, just to followthrough, your train of logic which you put into the program suggesting that obama might be factored in by some not coming from us obviously. if he is in a second term presumably he doesn't have to seek re-election. he doesn't have to appeal to his own democratic base and that would free up obama to do what that might impact the market? >> well, what i'm hoping for leaving ideological views aside, what i'm hoping for is there's some meeting of the minds so to speak. that a newly elected president obama could easily say my entire campaign was based on concept of raising taxes on the top income earners in the country. i won that debate by virtue of the election. therefore, i should get my way. i think that's obviously a
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negative outcome for the markets since john boehner already made it clear that he doesn't obviously see things that way. what i'll look for in terms of the market and economy is see these two sides hopefully coming together sooner rather than later to try to at a minimum kick the can down the road on fiscal cliff which itself is not a welcome outcome but if we start getting toward the middle to end of december, i can't believe that markets aren't going to take a look a year ago and say are we set up for a repeat of this? >> dan, it's always fun to play hypotheticals in the last remains hour. how much is spring loaded either way if in fact republicans take back the senate? >> i will say this. again, based on my conversations. under the assumption for this conversation that barack obama being re-elected is the expected outcome and democrats holding the senate is the expected outcome, in the near term i would say there's a pretty high probability of a shot to the upside if romney were to win and/or republicans take the senate since i don't believe
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anybody is factoring that in. there was a point our scenario in this year's outlook was for republicans to take the senate. as we have seen with candidates throughout the country, that's less likely of an outcome now. certainly i think there is a shot to the upside if republicans take the senate. i don't think there's any doubt about that. >> and based on your conversations, are you getting the sense there could be an allocation of money should the company tal gains taxes go higher? will stocks see pressure if we do see the taxes go up? >> two things again. the first of which is we just put out a note on the relationship between high dividend paying stocks and difficult teiv dividend tax rat. there isn't a real relationship. with respect to the capital gains tax, there is a pretty strong argument to be made for taxing capital gains at a lower rate than ordinary income taxes and it's a strong argument. what you're likely to see as the
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year progresses if barack obama wins is that's going to pull selling of equities into this year from next and it's probably going to lead to a lot of companies not just win but a lot of companies initiating special dividends that they will go up next year reap benefits of lower dividend tax rate this year. >> all right. dan, good to speak to you. >> thank you. >> dan greenhouse. >> still ahead, randi zuckerberg the day after the premiere of her reality show. how much of silicon valley is moving away from obama and toward romney? randi, sister of mark, will give us her take. as we go to break, more states gearing up to open their polls. alaska at 11:00 a.m. eastern along with some parts of idaho and hawaii at 12:00 noon. you ta. ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers...
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millionaires grew under president obama so are millionaires better off than they were four years ago. robert frank has that story. good morning. >> millionaires at least are better off than they were four years ago. there are certainly more of them. a new study for wealth insight shows that the u.s. added 1 million millionaires under obama. that works out to more than 1,000 millionaires a day or 40 millionaires an hour for over three years. in total there are more than 5 million millionaires in the u.s. total wealth it more than $19 trillion. that's more than u.s. gdp in one year. time frame is key here. we have fewer millionaires than the peak in 2007. we're down 165,000 millionaires compared to that peak in 2007. but from january of 2009 when obama took office, the millionaire count is up. the u.s. in fact added more millionaires in obama's first three years than george bush added in his entire eight years. now, where did these
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millionaires come from? stock markets. after dropping in 2008, we saw that huge stock market rebound in 2009 and 2010. the industries producing millionaires largely retail, tech and telecom and energy. so millionaires have done well under obama and most of them are better off than they were four years ago but as one of my readers wrote to me. bernanke did more to create the millionaires than obama. back to you, carl. >> i wonder how many were millionaires and then not millionaires and then made millionaires again. it's hard to tell where first-time millionaires. >> that's a great point. i think a lot of these people were just on the verge. they fell off and then they came back again. it's also interesting to look how they'll vote. the millionaire community is still fairly split with about 60% or less for romney. and 40% to 45% for obama. interesting to see how they vote today. >> you have a way of crunching numbers, robert. thanks. >> let's talk about job creation
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and the extent to which the employment situation here could decide who will win the white house. who better to ask than our senior economics reporter steve liesman. i look for a definitive answer on this one. >> i wish i could give it to you. the reason it's not definitive is two-fold. there's a rate issue and there's a change issue. let's talk about that. president obama is the fifth president in the postwar era to face the electorate with plus 7% unemployment rate and highest of all here at 7.9%. the other four, ford, carter, reagan and bush, only one of them, ronald reagan, won re-election. why? because perhaps the change. obviously president reagan had strong growth in the four quarters leading up to his election. he had a 1.4 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate in the one year prior. 18-point margin in victory here. look at president obama. he has a one percentage point decline in unemployment rate in
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12 months prior and we don't know what will happen. if you just get question marks in, we wait to see what margin plus or minus of his victory. we did a poll and asked people who are unemployed how are you going to vote in the election. let's look at the overall vote which comes from nbc/"wall street journal." likely voters, a split electorate. you would think unemployed would break in favor of the challenger. doesn't happen. 48-48 among those who have been unemployed in the last four years or someone in the household has been unemployed. if only someone in the household, they break 51-48. if he are unemployed they break by five percentage points in favor of obama. that's the national level. what about the state level? again, it's a confused picture. first you look at this map. darker is worse for unemployment. what's dark? new york is dark. in higher third of unemployment. what else is dark? california is dark. these are safe democratic states. where is unemployment low? from north dakota down to oklahoma none of that is going for obama.
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only one place perhaps. virginia is a potential swing state and also wisconsin. maybe that low rate is a precondition for obama to potentially win it. let's look at the change. again, very similar. darker is less change. less improving unemployment. new york, not a good state for change of unemployment over the last year but probably safely in the obama camp. the one place you might want to look here, nevada, florida, north carolina and virginia. those are all potentially in play because they had some improvement in the unemployment rate and if that had not been there, they might have been for romney. i would like to give you a definitive answer. you have the level of unemployment and you have the change. that's what makes this a horse race, simon. >> it's fascinating to see that the way you slice and dice going into the election whether it's turnout or amazing. steve, thank you very much. as the race for the presidency enters its final lap, what about concerns of small businesses? we'll put them on the television
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next going straight to the source and sitting down with co-founder and co-ceo of warby parker. they make glasses online and they'll open the first store in manhattan very soon. see what they have to say. interesting take. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase.
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when we got married. i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three. it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy. so, as we go into this next phase, you know, a big part of it for us is that there isn't anything on the schedule.
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well, the outcome of today's election has important implications for the start-up community. the founders of warby parker say the things that matter most are immigration reform and health care costs. the ceo joins us this morning having been here not too long ago. good to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> of all the policy positions you need to think about why those two? >> first is that no matter what business you are in, you're in a talent war. every start-up in america is having trouble hiring software engineers, developers and encoders. we need more. there is a lot being educated in the u.s. but they are having
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trouble getting green cards and visas to stay in the country. we need reform to hire the people we need to grow the business. we are growing quickly but could be hiring more people if we have more engineers. the second thing is health care costs. for us over the last few years they have increased. we think they will start to stabilize. for us, you know, we are a little over a hundred people. generally we have a younger population. i think most other companies so our health care costs should be low. but we think with the legislation that was passed, as it gets implemented the more people getting covered we think that will make it cheaper for people like us who have been paying over the past few years. >> is there pressure to keep people on a part-time basis as opposed to bringing them on full-time and having to pay for their insurance? >> not for us. it's about how can we get people on, continue to grow quickly. we don't even think about those increased costs. >> we don't like to ask how
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people are voting. from your standpoint would an obama or romney presidency benefit you more on those issues? >> i think we are finding that both candidates are looking at these issues and are hearing it from the business community and the start-up community. certainly the president's health care plan seems like it will have the fastest impact if it is implemented quickly. i think everyone is looking for action. i'm not sure that action will be dictated by the president or by congress. >> romney said he would overturn the affordable health care act. you seem to be saying you actually support it. >> yeah. i think we think that when we look at it simply the more people that are paying and being covered, it will make it cheaper for people like us that are currently paying. >> immigration has not been a huge debate point in this campaign. it's come up a bit. i hear it all the time.
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we all do from not just smaller businesses like your own, but leaders of big businesses as well. is there anything you see that will change the landscape in terms of getting the potential available talent to your doorstep? >> i think that the more we talk about it and the more people see that there is widespread public support for sensible reform then the more political courage congress and the next president will have to make change. >> it's fascinating because you are jobs and growth which is what they are all trying to encourage. so the big bet romney is making going into the campaign for america is if he lowers your marginal rate of taxation you will create more jobs and more growth. is that true? if your marginal taxation rate came down would you open more stores, hire people? >> that's not really on the white board planning for 2013 and beyond. for us it's how do we continue
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to promote growth. we are at an early stage of our company. >> you're creating jobs. >> right. >> you're doing what we need. that's all that's needed. >> what's most important to us is controlling health care costs, immigration reform. and then also sort of streamlining regulations so the president has a plan, it sounds like, to con sal date eight different groups including the secretary of commerce, the import/export bank, small business administration. that has bipartisan support. the chamber of commerce has endorsed it. those are thing
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or two about presidential races. ralph nader has run for president four times. he'll give us his take on the election coming u. we'll be right back.
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there's no "fast money" tonight because of election coverage. we'll see you tomorrow. >> yes. going to be a long night. >> you have to carry the load. >> get some rest tonight. >> 2:00 a.m. finish. >> we'll see. meantime if you are just joining us here's what you missed this morning. >> announcer: welcome to hour three of "squawk on the street." here's what's happening so far. >> the important thing to me is that if the president wins, gets re-elected he has to understand he doesn't have a mandate.
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>> there is nothing the president has done that's indicated thus far that he wants to be a friend, if you will, of wall street. >> don, you're a capitalist. >> he doesn't have to be a friend of wall street. his job is to be president of the united states and protect the interests of the nation and to protect the interests of all americans. >> we're going to sit here tomorrow and know who the president is. >> let's hope. >> we'll -- yes. let's hope. talk about uncertainty. that would be a blow if we sit here tomorrow and don't know who the president is. >> yeah. >> i'm saying that while so many people are waiting for an election, the ceos aren't. some of them are doing good things. >> that's the opening bell on this election day. >> there is a fear that you will see the election not end the election. that it will continue for years after. the polarization in the country is somewhat frightening. i hope whoever wins, it's not close. >> it's stuck in my craw that
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major rich people like warren buffett are paying a lower rate than me and romney. i don't blame him for taking advantage of the tax code but it's fundamentally unfair. >> good tuesday morning. happy election day. we are live here at post 9 of the new york stock exchange with a check on the markets we were told this morning that the markets tend to be kind ahead of an election, even on election day. we are seeing a rally up 83 points on the dow. almost six points on the s&p. 5 points on the nasdaq. 79 cents for caremark raising guidance for the year citing an uptick in drugstore chain sales and next reporting better than expected earnings for the third quarter. revenues short. world's largest stock exchange operator citing weaker trading
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in the u.s. and europe. let's get to the road map for the next hour. on this election day 2012 former presidential candidate ralph nader joins us. what impact the third party candidates have on this election. as the race for the presidency enters into the final lap what does it mean for silicon valley? who better to ask than randi zuckerberg, mark's sister. we'll give you the latest from
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both parties' camps. all starts with election day. voters casting votes for either the president or governor romney. the polls opening just now over in alaska. some parts of idaho. a lot of states are split. close at various times because of time zone differences. we are still waiting on hawaii. swing states like ohio and virginia will be crucial. scott cohen is live in columbus, ohio and diana is in fairfax, virginia. scott, what are you seeing this morning? >> we are at the student union at ohio state university. there is a polling place here. i looked at it and the line stretches out the door. several hundred people, mostly students lined up to vote. it's orderly, going well. there are reports of long lines throughout the states. so all of the attention that was lavished by the candidates on this state, it has gotten the voters' attention. the candidates were here up until this election day. president obama had a rally in columbus with 15,000 people. bruce springsteen and jay-z were in attendance as well. governor romney held an airport rally in columbus yesterday. olympic figure skater scott hamilton and jack nicholas were here. the governor will be back in cleveland for democratic country a short time from now. along with the armies of campaign volunteers and
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supporters are armies of lawyers. there are lawsuits and legal challenges already. the latest began on a request for an injunction that says the software that the secretary of state will use totally results has a back door that will allow others to access it. the secretary of state denies that. ohio is a huge user of the ballot. 200,000 provisional votes cast in 2008. it is likely we'll see something similar this time around. at issue is how the paperwork will be filled out, it could all come down to this. >> provisional ballots will be the main thing that the parties
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and candidates fight over in the event that we have a close election that comes down to ohio. the punch card, hanging chad ballots of 2012. >> now the man who is supposed to make it all run smoothly is ohio secretary of state john husted a republican. democrats have rekuzed him of trying to tip the scales by limiting the use -- limit early voting, i should say, and expand unprovisional ballots but he said he's ensuring the election is fair. >> the bottom line is you can vote starting 35 days out in ohio. i sent every single voter an absentee ballot request so you didn't even have to leave home to vote. we are doing a really good job of treating everybody fairly. >> the absentee votes will be the first result wes see tonight. 1.8 million absentee ballots sent out.
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that's a record for the state. the absentee ballots tend to lean toward democrats. the experts say when the results first come out after the polls close we could see a surge in results for president obama. that may be balanced out by election day results. as far as the provisional ballots by state law they have to wait ten days after the election before they begin counting those. if we see a tight margin here we could be looking at counting ballots all the way past thanksgiving. >> you're getting into the latter part of the month. traders worry that the market would be held hostage to results for weeks. scott, thank you very much. scott cohen from columbus. to virginia where a senate race could determine party leadership. diana olick has more on that. good morning. >> good morning. that's right. you have two former governors, democrat tim kaine and republican george allen vying for the seat being vacated by jim webb.
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allen lost to webb in 2006. tim kaine has outspent allen so far. analysts say we would need to see a romney victory here for allen to pull it off. again senate leadership, so crucialle with so many things facing the economy now. what's at stake in the senate? of course you have the fate of the bush tax cuts, number one. you also -- nothing larger than the debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff. part of that sques radiatieques. that's a potential $50 billion in defense cuts. look to the south and you have norfolk and the shipbuilding industry. you have the pentagon located in virginia. it's all these issues in the economy that are bringing virginia voters to the polls today. >> my big issue is job security for my husband. >> economy. it's the main and the debt. >> i want to reduce regulation. >> when we look at it, it was
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over 40 years virginians didn't put a democrat into the white house until president obama came along. he won largely because of voters in the north. this is north versus south. northern virginia much more liberal. 23% population growth over the last ten years. a lot of that hispanic people moving into the state. in the south, still a very conservative southern virginia. it will be north versus south. what we have seen in the polls today, a lot of people coming in. it's a gorgeous day. it will be high voter turnout. polls close at 7:00 p.m. this will be an early read on 13 crucial electoral votes from virginia. back to you. >> and some say an early tell about the race at large. thank you very much. let's get to capital markets this morning. gary cominski is here on set. >> as far as voting, i did vote this morning. no electricity, power where i am. life is still pathetic.
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we'll get to that later. if you haven't voted you have no excuse. everybody is trying to figure out what's after this election. let's go to 2008. you remember the hope and change four years ago. you remember the stock market had a significant down craft after the election which lasted through if you pay attention to march of 2009. i want to look at two things. everybody knows the crb index is made up of things like oil, natural gas, dpold, silver, corn, wheat. these are commodities that are opti optionab optionable. you can trade, hedge, speculate. the crb index, i was not that familiar with it. us burlap, butter, rosin, tall low. commodities only utilized when you need them for manufacturing. why bring this up? everyone is trying to figure out
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what it will be for the next several months ahead. i have to show you charts here. thanks for bringing this to my attention. look at the crb index. if you know that the crb index topped out july 4, 2008 at $474. the rind index if we have the next chart tapped out april 25. the rind index leads by ten weeks. you had the rind index bottom out ten weeks before the crb. look at where we are now. very important data. if you look at where we are now, we have essentially gone down to the low down to 650. what is this telling you?
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the bias of the commodity products that are not optionable are concerned about an economy going into recession or dramatic slow down. this may be a double bottom. if you want to pay attention to one thing there was an unbelievable indicator in 2008 for market direction for six months after the election. this is the one thing you want to pay attention to. do we double bottom here or break down? if we break down it will signal two things. economy, recession. and/or more q.e. can you go from qe infinity? what would be -- >> google plex qe. >> for the rest of the time before the planet blows up. >> yeah. >> again, smart people pay attention to smart stuff like this. i didn't follow the connection between the two. this is something i will be paying attention to. >> don't go too far. when we come back, having trouble locating your local polling station? there is an app for that. the ceo of foursquare joins us with the latest on the app
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placing voters with their respective polling stations nationwide next. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this.
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we don't call this our company, we call this our mission. green toys teaches children that if i have a milk jug and i stick it in the recycling bin it can turn into something new. chase allows us to buy capital equipment to be able to manufacture in the states to the scale we need to be a global company.
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with a little luck green toys could be the next great american brand. find what's next for your business at chase.com/mainstreet foursquare is allowing voters to find their local polling stations after kwekting the -- connecting to the ivoted app they can check in to ensure of their vote.
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dennis, good morning. >> thanks for having me. >> this is an important thing. 25 million global users, a lot in the u.s. how much do you think it can move the needle? >> this is interesting to be able to help people find places to go out an vote. as well as allowing people to share the active voting. we see lots of foursquare voters checking in with polling locations and that might encourage people or remind them to get their vote on. >> walk us through the app. how does it work? what do you enter and how many does it give you? a number of choices? one choice? >> we are not voting via phone. what we have et up at election.foursquare.com is a way to help people figure out where their polling places are, learn about some of the issues that will be -- candidates on the ballot and we have a visualization that allows you to see the foursquare activity around the country. you can see which polling
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locations are active now and basic stats about the type of people checking into those polling locations. >> then there is actually a badge of sorts, a sticker, that shares with others that you, in fact, voted. how does that work? >> foursquare has been known for badges. we have created one for the election two years ago. people were asking for it this time around again. i voted this morning. as soon as i checked into my polling place, i unlocked the "i voted" badge on foursquare and my friends saw it and they were excited to get theirs as well. >> how likely is it that a lot of people may be logging on for the first time figuring out foursquare is and stay with you. become a recurring customer. is there th a revenue generator long term? >> this is about we are in a position to maybe go out there and encourage a couple of folk that is maybe wouldn't vote to go out and vote. i don't think it push it is numbers for us. generates revenue for us. we have interesting data.
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we like to put it in data visualization. if we can make a little difference with 25 million users we have, that's fantastic. >> i wonder -- you've got to think, dennis, there will be heightened wareness or use of the product in the northeast where there is a lot of confusion about where you are able to vote just because of the after math of the storm. >> sure. i can imagine people using foursquare to find nearby polling places. once you connect it to the i voted connected app it can tell you, this is where you need to go to place your vote. >> incredible how mobile, gps has changed our lives. you know you have a problem if someone becomes the mayor of the polling station because you're only allowed to go once. >> right. one vote per person. the mayor is a red flag. >> there are no mayors here. thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. >> dennis crowley, ceo and
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co-founder of foursquare. governor romney appearing in ohio for last minute campaigning. he makes it to pittsburgh today before getting ready for the results to come in boston later tonight. when we come back, former presidential candidate ralph nader says the president is running a lone ranger campaign. he'll explain how that might impact the party. that's ahead in a first on cnbc interview coming up. i'm a conservative investor. i invest in what i know. i turned 65 last week. i'm getting married. planning a life. there are risks, sure. but, there's no reward without it. i want to be prepared for the long haul. i see a world bursting with opportunities. india, china, brazil, ishares, small-caps, large-caps, ishares. industrials. low cost. every dollar counts. ishares. income. dividends. bonds. i like bonds. ishares. commodities. diversification.
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gold trending higher this morning, hovering near a nine-week low ahead of the election. what will an obama or romney win mean for gold and how can you
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profit? with us, frank holmes, cio and ceo. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> a lot riding on the election. what's going on south of 1700? kid you expect it? how long will it last? >> i published that gold has a fantastic rally august, september and middle of august it starts to fade until the middle of november. you get this other rally with another season in india you have a wedding season taking place. then we have christmas, chinese new year. at's interesting for the past 32 years and the presidential election cycle on the year of the presidential election like this year, gold stocks way underperformed bullion. we are in that stage and next year a position for gold stocks to rally. >> if in fact the economic data continues to improve or if romney does win tonight fed
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policy eventually reverses. qe goes away somehow. dollar goes up, gold goes down. why is that not going to happen? >> well, that's a great set of questions you're asking me. the key factor to look at is will the monetary debasement continue? under romney i don't think it stops. you won't have interest rates 2% above the inflation rate or you will have a big recession on your hands. i don't think any politician in washington want as huge recession. so we are going to continue with negative interest rates as the government monetizes trillions of dollars of debt in roll overs. it's not just america. japan is doing
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>> we'll see how the end game, what it means for gold long term. appreciate your time. go spurs. frank holmes from san antonio. a warning from the health care system. want to send it to bertha coombs for a quick market flash. >> the worst performer in the
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s&p trading below its 200-day moving arch coming off the highs. the company yesterday in its press release said 2013 outlook was overly aggressive. reviewing that again today on the call. that has sent shares lower. additionally they say an acquired unit acredo health has been subpoenaed by the southern district of new york over issues and arrangements with novartis over a drug called x jade. >> watching the stock move. when we come back n a close presidential race, third party candidates could have a major influence. a man who's run in four elections himself, ralph nader, joins us in a first on cnbc int int interview next. and the bells are about to sound in europe. we'll get the details next.
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markets about to close in europe. we continue to watch poll results in the states. a strike in greece and simon hobbs with data that's telling us more about the german economy. >> the german situation is bad. we'll come back to it in a minute. let's look at the close here and
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the degree to which we have actually bounced in europe today. these markets in europe are focused on one thing and it's the u.s. presidential election. there we go. so -- are we going to get -- i don't know. >> i think she's voting. >> there we go. what are we looking at here? there we go. a little tour of the studio there. you can see that it's green for much of western europe. so a positive across the board. the election is key. absolutely key for those markets short term in europe. no question. if however there is one thing you take away, and carl identified this. one thing you take from the next 90 seconds of cable television, it is this. germany may contract. after three years into the crisis germany macon tract in the fourth quarter. the data that we had today from germany is appalling. the rest of europe is contracting maybe more rapidly. but germany, the industrial
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orders here and i believe this is on the month. this is not a year on year figure. down four and a half percent, down 9.6% on orders from the rest of europe. you may not get a recession. locally you have quite a buoyant jobs market. you have strong german consumer demand but germany may contract in the fourth quarter. in the meantime because of what the central banks are doing the markets are able to go off in their own direction. it's not necessarily determined on what the economic situation is. you've got relief in the ecb and whatever the fed may be doing. a couple of stock stories for you. a.r.m. is a way a lot of people are playing apple in europe. it designs chips used in the iphones. you have seen the suggestion overnight that maybe increasingly apple will use those chips with enough power from the iphones to use on the laptops. this is a great start. a 32% gain over just the last two months in london. wanted to mention to you
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volkswagen weigh as well but they have announced having bought d urucati and porsche. let me leave you with video from greece which, of course, has a cliff hanger vote tomorrow. today is the first day of the general strike to protest austerity. the prime minister tomorrow has to hold the three-party coalition together to get the austerity vote. in order to unlock funds from the rest of europe. in mexico today it was said they would like a deal on monday with the rest of europe. others suggest it might be overly optimistic. there are three events to watch this week. china regime change. the greek vote. in fact, there are two votes sunday as well as tomorrow. of course what happens here overnight in the next 24 hours. >> and the central banks, though nothing may happen. >> obviously the german data
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increases pressure on the ecb for a rate cut. the feeling is they won't get it on thursday. >> thanks a lot. simon hobbs, another capital markets op-ed. gary, i see you poring through papers. >> most of the guys on the crew here at cnbc want me to talk about lipa. we'll come after -- >> the long island power authority. >> right. no power still. thanks, andrew cuomo. let's talk about dividends. i was talking to steve grasso. a number of strategists said even if obama is re-elected we don't expect a lot to change with the high dividend paying stocks. we have been there before. they missed the pointy strategists. we are in a different world, a different interest rate world. the fact that certain stocks had an after tax yield say 12 years ago it's apples to oranges, stupid comparison. let's look at at&t.
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put up the full screen. if you buy a thousand shares of at&t today that will cost you $34,000. you will get a dividend of $1.76. there we go. 5% yield at the current price. on a thousand shares of at&t if you are buying it for income before taxes you will net 1,760. obviously what dividend tax rates are is left in your pocket. i know this. you know, i lived and breathed this for years. at the end of the day it doesn't matter what things were 12 years ago. what's left in my pocket after paying taxes? with dividend taxes go to 43%. you take the $1.76. you are not comparing it to 12 years ago. you're comparing it to what you can get in a triple tax free muni and how that will compare in the after tax return. all the money that went into high dividend paying stocks, yes it's because of bernanke and qe.
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but the only relevant comparison is what i dote get on an after tax return. if obama is re-elected and that's the message the market gets tomorrow that's what will happen. everything else is irrelevant. >> we keep hearing if it's president obama who wins re-election there would be a rash of elections at year end. would you want to hold on to the last minute? >> that's a bet you will talk about in terms of what it is. remember, the value when you sell it, if you wait for the current dividend you will lose it on the price of stock when you sell it. don't believe these people that tell you that it's not different. it is very different. it's as completely different interest rate world. >> yeah. >> after tax returns is all people will care about with a higher dividend tax rate. >> we'll know more. >> we hope. i'll be watching you. >> tonight. >> if i can find a place with tv and electricity. thank you, andrewco moe.
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>> bob pisani is out there. >> the veneer of civilization gets thin when you have no gasoline and no electricity. >> yes. gary doing his best to hold up there. we are looking to see if the market is projecting a clear winner or loser here. no. i can't see it. i know people are trying to see it, but i don't. the argument everybody is making is you see the dividend players in the last few days. look at the reits and telecoms. the utilities are weak on sandy, a large part of it. these aren't statistically significant moves. fractions of 1%. i'm not impressed. the bank stocks weak yesterday a few days. people saying obama would be more difficult or hard on the banks. today the banks are up. again, i don't see a pattern that would indicate a winner or loser in the election. defense stocks to the extend governor romney might be favorable, defense stocks have held up well. i will make a comment. but my point is i don't see a
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clear winner or loser coming out of this. there are two risks the market is worried about. the biggest worry for the stock market is no winner. this goes on six, eight weeks. heaven knows how long. a lot of buying puts around 1400 range. longer term there are concerns about the fiscal cliff and buying inputs longer data. i wouldn't say it's titanic numbers. we are looking for the search for certainty now. the s&p is usually up in the fourth quarter. we have china ready to announce the leader, stimulus measures.,ñ
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this is a fairly flat curve. the volatility guys aren't suggesting that the world will freak out or blow up in november, december or january. lock heed martin is at a new high today. this company isn't screaming sequestration. it goes back to my point: i'm not a genius. i'm looking at the stock market. it's not saying the fiscal cliff will pose a problem now. it might be but they are not
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saying it. >> two great points, bob. flying in the face of everything people say. the numbers don't agree. thanks a lot. voters are lining up to cast votes in the presidential election. the latest polls show the race between president obama and mitt romney is neck and neck. we have a former presidential candidate who says we need to pay attention to the third party. joining us is ralph nader, consumer advocate and four-time presidential candidate. welcome to the program. >> good morning, carl. >> you have been busy. you hosted candidates monday in washington. the view from the sidelines this time around, how does the race look? >> there is a speculative frenzy. let's set it aside. the reason for the third-party debates is because they are putting forward to the american people a lot of redirection and changes that are ignored by romney and obama. off the table. not discussed in the debates or on the campaign trail. for example a majority of the
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people want a minimum wage at least adjusted for inflation to 1968 taking it from $7.25 to over $10 an hour. a majority of the people want full medicare for all. free choice of doctor and hospital. off the table from obama and romney. majority of people want wall street crooks and corporate crime enforcement to get tougher. off the table. a lot of people don't like bailouts and subsidies whether they are libertarians or liberals. not discussed by obama or romney. not to mention getting out of afghanistan. that's now over 70% of the public want us to get out of there. to end huge wars overseas. they are just breeding more enanies and draining our treasury at home. above all, most people want a public works program. they want schools repaired. they want clinics, public transit. >> those sound like ideas more
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likely. is that why the president is running a lone ranger campaign, trying to divorce himself from the pelosis of the world? >> i don't see it as democrat instead of republican. believe me. when you get 70% behind an inflation adjusted minimum wage or get out of afghanistan or crack down on corporate crime that includes conservatives. that's over 70% of the population. i think the two parties, the big ones, have an interest in polarizing. they are sweating it more and more about fewer and fewer distinctions between them. all the major areas on people's minds every day are off the table. that's why third parties are important. the candidates don't have marbles in their mouths. you may not agree with them or you may disagree, but at least they are putting forward what's on their minds. >> why then do people say that third-party candidates, the likelihood of a third-party candidate to alter the debate in this country dwindles with every
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cycle? why do they say that? >> people like to be with a winner so they can be 5% for jill stein and the green party or 5% for gary johnson and the libertarian party. but you go into the booth. that shrinks, as you say. the system is rigged and people know that only one of the two big guys will win. it's a winner take all situation. huge money. huge ads on the side of the big guys and the little guys can't even get a chance to have a chance because they are shut out of the debates which are rationed to three by a corporation created by the republican democratic parties back in 1987 to make sure that no competitors reach tens of millions of people through these debates. >> yeah. i saw a prominent business leader challenge either the president or the governor if they are elected or re-elected to basically renounce party affiliation, caucus with whichever side they like but take an official independent stance. how would that change the
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calculus in this country? >> i think that's a prediction that might come true in 2016. three-way, four-way race. the bloomberg types. there are a lot of billionaires saying, why not? why not throw our hat in the ring? i think the two-party dictatorship will come in from real challenge, especially breaking the grip of the debate commission because if you're not a billionaire running for president you cannot reach tens of millions of people if you don't get on the debates. why ration them? there should be 20, 30 debates all over the country. >> you made that point before. >> you mentioned people wanting to throw their hat in the ring. >> i don't think so. fairly doubtful. i have shown the way. we documented the two-party seclusion. now it is time for many flowers to bloom. not just since the presidential, but a congressional state and local level. people need more choices and voices. check out nader.org.
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you will see how well this debate went. >> nice pitch at the end there, ralph. thanks for your time. >> thank you, carl. >> happy election day. ralph nader from washington. when you think of silicon valley you probably don't think politics. up next, insights on the politics of silicon valley and what the night means for big tech when squoez squawk street comes back.
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welcome back. coming up on "halftime" decision day in america. who is better for your investment? it's your money, your vote. this election could be a game changer for tax policy from dividends to capital gains. we have a list of stocks that could take a hit. should you buy or bail on the top performers since mr. obama took office? tune in at the top of the hour. see you in 12 minutes or so. >> good to have you back, scott. take a look at the markets. up almost 150. we were up 153 a few minutes ago. a big pop. still looking for a reason for it. who knows what could crawl across twitter given the information. >> we are looking for rumors or anything. can't even report a rumor. >> in the meantime as the tech industry grows higher in washington silicon valley heading to the voting booth has a more active voice in politics, more generous with political contributions. the big question for the next
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guest is did either candidate catch the premier of the reality show about silicon valley? joining us the is randi zuckerberg, founder of zuckerberg media. welcome back. >> thanks, carl. i think we really one-upped ourselves this time. we were talking about the reality show from the stock exchange and here we are talking on election day. >> we said we want to have you back after the show premiered. congratulations on that. what do you make of this broad argument that somehow we know california with its 70-plus electoral votes is blue. can the same be said about the valley? >> you know, i think there is one thing that unites everyone in silicon valley. that's the spirit of innovation. the desire to just vote for a candidate that will support innovation and allow people to continue doing what they do best here. >> is that a democrat or republican?
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i can think of arguments that go both ways. >> i think it was funny. as people were watching the show last night they were saying you're not telling the full authentic version of silicon valley. you are telling one person's version or six people's version. the same way there is no one authentic silicon valley voice who think it is fair to say there is one political voice from the valley. you have a wide range, wide spectrum of people talking about different things. >> i'm not trying to argue the valley is one or the other but trying to gauge the trajectory or how it is shifting over time. you take mark andriesen who is a leader in the field, a thought leader, a leader when it comes to century vur chventure capita. i wonder if you think it's bleeding into the culture. >> you know, i think people -- definitely there is more
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discussion on both sides of the fence than i have seen in previous years. the interesting thing about the valley is even though it's an economic hub for the country, people here aren't motivated by money first and foremost. people are motivate bid a passion to build. when you come here it's risky. there is a big failure chance. this is not a town for people where money is the first concern. i think that's a little bit less of the issue on the docket today. >> you know, we talk so much about our two business executives waiting for the election to get out of the way. whether you like the results or not at least you have a sense of how the house will go, how the oval office will go. do you sense a ramp up in activity barring the fiscal cliff concerns once we get past tonight? >> you know, what's most interesting to me about silicon valley is you have all the tech giants who are competing all year round and the election is the one time where i see all of
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the companies coming together to collaborate on things. you know, there is a real sense out here that the technology that we are building is really changing the economy. it's changing politics. you really see people coming together around the table for the first time in four years. >> the great thing about the show on bravo is you have unparalleled look at how entrepreneurs think and act. sometimes the two aren't exactly the same. can you give us a sense of how the narrative will unfold as the season goes on? >> sure. we saw episode one last night. that's episode one of eight. so last night was really meant to set up the characters and start to set up the drama. last night we saw a venture capital pitch. we had a brother-sister duo who went in, pitched and bombed. hopefully they will learn and viewers can learn also. >> lessons abound in the show. again, congratulations.
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looking forward to more. see you next time. >> thanks so much. take care. >> want to mention the dow up almost 150. that's the biggest gain since september 13th. still ahead, a look at how voting in the areas hit hardest by sandy could be affected. what it might mean for the election. take a look at the dow's heat map. some of the moving indices on election day morning.
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dow is up 155 on this election day. the biggest gain since the middle of september. interestingly, you know, people talk a lot about indecision in the election. the dow hasn't had as much as a three-day winning streak since is more than a 1% move today being used by industrials. utx up almost 3%. hewlett-packard, boeing, travelers, jpmorgan and ge round out the top five or six. when we come back, final thoughts on the big election day. back in two minutes. [ male announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role
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welcome back. new jersey and new york taking steps to make sure every resident can vote despite difficult circumstances in the wake of sandy. we are in littlehead, new jersey, this morning. >> reporter: hey, carl.
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voting post sandy has not been without controversy. first there was a plan to have national guard trucks at mobile polling stations. that was quarterbacked. now there is e-mail voting but some people don't have power and you can only access the internet via generator. there is a problem with people registering but not getting the ballots. experts worn of voter fraud. new jersey turn out on the poll sometimes 20 percentage points higher than the national average for the last three elections. liv early voting has been key here. in morris county, nearby here lines were two hours yesterday. here in bergen county because of road closures we haven't seen high early voting but steady turnout today. public transportation has gotten people from their stranded neighborhoods to the polling stations here, carl. that's the situation here in new jersey. >> anybody

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